PostScript Sports

As the season approaches we look ahead to the win total predictions for each team. We will go conference by conference starting with the AFC and have a follow up NFC post coming a few days after.

Every year I go into this I am looking at a few key factors in making my prediction for each team. In order of importance is the following: quarterback, head coach, offensive/defensive coordinator changes, strength of division, other positional roster overhaul and feelings of last seasons wins (example being Kansas City winning close or flukey games but winning 15 games).

One last thing before we get into each team, is I’m getting this feeling that the NFL is losing its parity more and more each season. A large reason for that, I think, is the raising salary cap year after year. A team like Denver eating the money they are for Russell Wilson used to be a 2-3 year death sentence. But they were able to turn it around while having that large of a dead cap figure on the books.

Part of that is just credit to a great coaching staff lead by Sean Payton and seemingly hitting on a quarterback in the first round. Those factors being a big reason why those two things I look at first when predicting the over or under of each team. A good quarterback and coach combo will always raise the floor of a team no matter what the sum of the remaining parts. I’m interested to see if the NFL gains back its parity or we will see similar division winners and playoff teams that we have the last two seasons.

Buffalo Bills 12.5 – Over:

Buffalo is coming off another strong season and an MVP season from quarterback Josh Allen. Selecting the over on the leagues highest predicted win total always feels a little scary. But you have arguably the best QB in the league who’s been winning this many games with a weaker skill position group and it just hasn’t mattered. I think the rest of their division is weak, young or both. I don’t see a world were Josh Allen is healthy and this team doesn’t go over. I think they run away with the division and I think this is also a team that really wants home field throughout the playoffs.

Baltimore Ravens 11.5 – Over:

Baltimore may be my pick to win the AFC this year. Much like the Bills you have a floor raiser in Lamar Jackson. I’d also add that the rushing attack of Jackson and Derrick Henry, is a huge floor raiser as well. They play in a tougher division than the Bills but still get a weak Browns team twice a year, a bad defense with Cincinnati and a team in the Steelers that has a 40+ year old QB. That all being said those AFC North games will be close, tough and physical like they always are but I see the Ravens making a leap over their divisional counterparts and being a 12+ win team in 2025.

Kansas City Chiefs 11.5 – Over:

I brought up that Kansas City won more games than they probably should have last year, so why am I taking the over? The answer is simple: Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes. I have other reasons that I’ll get into but until those two don’t go to the AFC Championship game and don’t hit their over year after year, I’m going to take the over. I did it with New England in the 2010’s and I’m doing it now with Kansas City in the 2020’s. We very well may see a diminished Travis Kelce this season, but I also think its really likely we see a more explosive wide receiver group in Rice, Brown and Worthy (once Rice returns for what will be a likely 4+ game suspension). This team is well coached, experienced and I think coming off a Super Bowl loss very motivated to get back atop the AFC.

Denver Broncos 9.5 – Under:

Denver was one of the biggest surprises last season. A team with a huge dead cap hit hanging over them and a rookie QB. Questions grew if Sean Payton still had his fastball? The Broncos churned out the arguably the league’s best defense and Bo Nix under, Payton’s tutelage, provided enough to win 10 games and sneak into the playoffs. So after all of that why am I going under? I think there is some regression at quarterback and even though Nix played well last year I still want to be sold that he can do that or better again. The defense played out of this world, can it be done again, maybe? But in a division that has Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert and now Geno Smith they have 6 tough division games against good veteran QB’s. I just find it hard to believe they win 10 or more games. I think they are right around that win total but just fall short.

Houston Texans 9.5 – Over:

A weak division goes a long way. You have a new coach in Jacksonville, a rookie QB in Tennessee and either Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones at QB in Indianapolis. I think Stroud bounces back after a small sophomore slump (still won his division) and the Texans runaway with this division in 2025. They aren’t a team I think makes a deep playoff run without a heroic season from Stroud but they’re good enough to win at least 10 games again and win their division.

Los Angeles Chargers 9.5 – Over:

This is an over I really like. They have a top-7 guy at QB, two great tackles and a head coach that is growing an identity as a physical team in the trenches and in the ground game. Harbaugh seems to be able to form his teams into these physical run attack that win up-front and now he has the best QB he’s had at the NFL level to lead that attack and also stretch the field. They are in a tough division with great and experienced coaches, it’s going to be hard for them to win much more than their over but I think this team is going to surprise a lot of people and I wouldn’t be surprised if they are hosting a playoff game this postseason.

Cincinnati Bengals 9.5 – Over:

There are two main reasons I am taking the Cincinnati over. The far and away reason is Joe Burrow. I wrote last week about Burrow doing the most with the least. The second reason I’m picking them is the few things that Burrow does have at his disposal is his two headed monster on the outside with Chase and Higgins plus a versatile back in Brown out of the backfield. There isn’t much I love about Cincinnati outside of them but that’s how good those guys are. I think Baltimore is better than them in their division, but I also think Cleveland could be the worst team in the AFC and I think this might finally be the year Pittsburgh doesn’t claw themselves to a .500 or better record. Cincinnati got hot at the end of last year. Can that carry over to a team that has consistently started slow the last few seasons? I think they can and I think that gets them to 10 wins or more.

New England Patriots 8.5 – Over:

Improved roster, more experience for Drake Maye after a promising rookie campaign but more than anything the improvement with Mike Vrabel as the head coach. Drake Maye showed a lot of promise in his stint as the starter, with a poor receiving core and behind an offensive line that nobody was jealous of, he showed flashes of what he can become and why he was selected with the third overall pick. But when you look at teams that upgraded the largest jump might come from New England changing from Jerod Mayo to Mike Vrabel. Vrabel year after year raised the floor of a Titans team that never had a guy with Maye’s talent at quarterback. For New England to turn to Vrabel after a disaster of a first year head coaching job they had with Mayo I think makes this team jump from a bottom five team to a team fighting for the last playoff spot in the AFC. 

Pittsburg Steelers 8.5 – Under:

Over the past few years I usually look at the Steelers win total, select the over and know that Tomlin will lead his guys to a 8-10 win season. But I think this is the year that’s finally over. I could look back at this pick at seasons end and be dead wrong but there’s only so long a team with a rotating door of starting quarterbacks since the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger can win. I don’t think that Rodgers is going to be the one to keep that alive. With a new receiving core, a short offseason and coming off a pedestrian season with the Jets I don’t think Rodgers gets it done in his lone year plans in Pittsburgh and I think the Steelers have a losing season.

Miami Dolphins 7.5 – UNDER:

Might have been the easiest under for me in the league. Did Miami seem to quit last year? Are we sure Tua is going to play 17 games? Who did they add? This is just a team with so many questions but the biggest thing I see with this team and their quarterback is everything has to go right for them to win games. That sounds weird, but good football teams can win games when maybe their first option isn’t there. If the ground game isn’t going for a team, their quarterback can make some plays. If the offense is getting shut out the special teams and defense can pick them up. The Dolphins don’t have that. They basically have to out scheme the other team’s defensive coordinator and set up Tua and the offense to be on rhythm to win games. I just don’t think that continues in South Beach and I think this might be the end of this coaching staff.

Jacksonville Jaguars 7.5 – Under:

There are reasons to be optimistic, but I just don’t know if it’s enough. You’re in a bad division but I just don’t know if it’s enough. They should be an improved team but they still have a first year head coach, a poor offensive line and a quarterback who hasn’t improved since a promising sophomore season a few years ago. I think they’re better than last year and I do see a world where they can be an exciting offense and they get an improved Trevor Lawerence. But I just think they are a 5-7 win team and can’t get over the hump to be fighting for a playoff spot or even the 8 wins required for their over.

Indianapolis Colts 7.5 – Under:

Pretty simple reason for the under here. Their quarterback options are amongst the worst in the league. There has been a glaring hole at quarter back since the early retirement of Andrew Luck in Indianapolis. They’ve trotted out Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Carson Wentz, Joe Flacco, Garnder Minshew and drafted Anthony Richardson in the first round and no one has been an answer or at the least a long term answer. There is a good chance Daniel Jones even beats out Anthony Richarsdson for the season opener. Either choice I see as probably the worst or second worst quarterback in the AFC. So why am I supposed to think that they’ll win 8 games? 

Las Vegas Raiders 6.5 – Over:

If they were not in the loaded AFC West I think this is an easy over. But even with that being said I still am going over. Look I’m going to trust Pete Carroll the same way I do Mike Vrabel to raise the floor of team. You add that with a already developed connection with Geno Smith and I think this is a team that wins some close games that in the past couple seasons the Raiders wouldn’t win. I think Jeanty will be a stud right out of the gate and they have the best tight-end in the league. I don’t think they make the playoffs due to the strength of their division but I think they can win 7-9 games and make it interesting.

New York Jets 6.5 – Under:

Where did this team improve from last year? I’m having a hard time finding that. It’s the Jets. Sometimes with some franchises it’s as simple as this team is poorly ran and haven’t shown anything this offseason, that it won’t be another disappointing season for Jets fans. Another new head coach and another new quarterback who hasn’t proven he can win in this league don’t make me hesitate in thinking this team is going to struggle to win games this year.

Tennessee Titans 5.5 – Over:

This is Cam Ward bet. I can’t think of any other quarterback taken with the first overall pick that has been talked about less than Ward this offseason. I understand he wasn’t the prospect that Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels from the year prior. But I think he’s a large jump up in talent from Will Levis. The Titans never felt like they were as bad as their record showed, even with Levis or Rudolph under center down the stretch of last season they seemed to improve and stay competitive in some games. The Titans are still a few years away from being a playoff team. But in a weak division, an improvement at quarterback and a feistier roster than I think they’re given credit for I think they can go win 6 games.

Cleveland Browns 5.5 – Under:

My answer for the Browns under feels like combination for my reasons for under for the Colts and Jets. A franchise that is poorly ran and quarterback situation that I don’t even think the Colts would trade for. The only pause I have is Kevin Stefanski is a good head coach and their defense isn’t awful. But in a tough AFC North and with bad QB play I can’t take the over with the Browns.