We are finally here after a long offseason—Week 1 is upon us, kicking off this Thursday. This will be a weekly series that, after Week 1, will be posted on Wednesday mornings. We will go through and pick every game for the week against the spread and, at the end, give our favorite 5 picks for the week. All lines provided are taken from FanDuel.com. This is not gambling advice or sponsored.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-7.5)
Philadelphia -7.5
We are taking Philly to cover the 7.5-point spread. The Philly ring celebration and momentum, I think, carry into the season opener. The loss of Parsons and Lawrence against a strong Eagles offensive line makes me believe the trenches are won by Philadelphia and they are able to take care of their divisional foe fairly easily.
Kansas City at Los Angeles (C) (+3)
Kansas City -3
Taking Kansas City and the points. Though the line puzzled me, as the Chargers are coming off a strong season and under their second season with Jim Harbaugh, I figured this line would be a lot closer to even than favoring the Chiefs that heavily. The Chiefs are a public team, but when Andy Reid has extra time to prepare—whether that be a bye week or an offseason—historically his teams win, and when a team is favored by 3 or less and I think they will win, I’ll just go with that team.
Miami at Indianapolis (-1.5)
Indianapolis -1.5
Leaning Colts on this one. Both of these teams I am not high on for this year, but teams I see as pretty even. The Dolphins jump out with bigger names at the skill positions, but Indianapolis is better in the trenches and, even with Daniel Jones starting at quarterback, they have an identity of running the ball with Jonathan Taylor. What scares me about Miami here is: the game is indoors, Tua is healthy, the Colts have a middle-of-the-road pass rush at best. Miami can look good on offense when they are on schedule; it’s when defenses can take away first reads and apply pressure, which is left to be seen for this Colts team. All of that being said, these teams are both projected with similar win totals, and the Colts are home and only laying 1.5.
Pittsburgh at New York (J) (+2.5)
New York (J) +2.5
I think people forget, after a disappointing season, that the Jets’ defense was still pretty good in 2024. They ranked as a top-10 pass rush in football last year as a bad team (bad teams are usually behind, typically meaning the other team can run the ball more and also run more successful play action). The Jets have their struggles on offense, and that will likely show on Sunday, but that doesn’t get the Steelers away from the fact they are returning with a whole new offense led by a 42-year-old. Ultimately, I think this is a low-scoring game where both offenses struggle to move the ball. With that, I’ll take the 2.5 and the home-field advantage with New York.
Carolina at Jacksonville (-3)
Jacksonville -3
DUUUUVAL. New coach, new offense, new Jacksonville? Maybe, and that is to be seen. I see both of these teams as mediocre-at-best teams in bad divisions. So why take the Jaguars over a Panthers team that looked strong toward the end of last year? Carolina’s defense was pretty bad last year. The saving grace is they are healthy and getting the likes of Derrick Brown and Jaycee Horn on the field to start, but this is a team that lacks a pass rush and any real strengths on that side of the ball. Lawrence is in a real prove-it season. One thing that has been a clear weakness of Lawrence is throwing the ball under pressure. I think the Jags are able to keep him upright just enough in this Week 1 matchup and allow their playmakers to get the ball in space and ultimately lead to a victory over Carolina.
Arizona at New Orleans (+5.5)
Arizona -5.5
I hate taking a road favorite when the team I’m taking isn’t one I think is a playoff-level team. But sometimes there is a team and quarterback that you’re just going to bet against until they can show you they’re worth taking or the line gets so atrociously large that you have to take it, and right now New Orleans and Spencer Rattler are those two things. I just don’t know how this Saints team is going to resemble an NFL-caliber offense unless Alvin Kamara just goes haywire or the Cardinals blow coverages multiple times. I just don’t see those things happening. Though I’m not superbly high on Arizona this year, I just don’t see how this Saints team scores more than 14 without a crazy special teams or defensive touchdown. So for now, and until proven otherwise, I will be betting against the Saints.
New York (G) at Washington (-6.5)
Washington -6.5
I’m riding a little higher on the Giants now than I was before the preseason. There are two ways I see this bet going the wrong way: the Giants’ pass rush overwhelms Washington and messes their offense up, and/or Wilson and Nabers connect on some long balls. The Commanders are the better and more experienced team. An old team, I think, will perform better early in the season, and coming off a deep playoff run and a second-year Jayden Daniels, I think Washington takes care of business in Week 1.
Tampa Bay at Atlanta (+2.5)
Atlanta +2.5
I get it, Baker threw 40 touchdowns. I get it, Mike Evans is going to catch 1,000 yards every year until 2054. I get why some are high on the Buccaneers, but do people not remember Kirk Cousins torching them for 500 yards last year and being 0-2 against the Falcons? I will admit I am optimistic for Michael Penix Jr., but that’s not the sole reason I’m taking Atlanta here. These NFC South games are always whacky and always competitive. I’ll take the team that showed an ability to rack up points and yards on Tampa Bay last year, the home-field advantage, and the 2.5 points.
Cincinnati at Cleveland (+5.5)
Cincinnati -5.5
Remember what I said about the Cardinals and not liking to take road favorites that I don’t see as playoff teams? Well, I think Cincinnati is a playoff team. Remember what I said about the Saints and betting against a team until they prove to me otherwise that they’re worth selecting? The Browns are the other team that follows that same rule. Cincinnati, for 3 years in a row, has gotten off to a slow start, losing all 3 of their last season openers. I think this year they change that—they need to change that. If you think Cincinnati is going to the playoffs, they win this game. With an offense as explosive as the Bengals, I think they’ll put up points. Even with a weaker defense, I just don’t think this Cleveland team can keep up, and ultimately the Bengals cover the 5.5 points.
Las Vegas at New England (-2.5)
New England -2.5
I like both of these two teams to improve for similar reasons this season: better coaching. So why New England over Las Vegas? I find these two teams a toss-up. New coaches, relatively new QBs (Maye’s first season opener as a starter), and plenty of other new faces up and down these rosters. With that, I’ll take the home team and the team I think will make the biggest jump in total wins from last year to this year.
San Francisco at Seattle (+2.5)
Seattle +2.5
I think Seattle is going to surprise a lot of teams this year, especially on the defensive side of the football. San Francisco is not the deep roster they were in years past. I think this young and hungry Seahawks team is going to be able to get after Purdy and keep the passing game in check. McCaffrey is a danger every time he touches the ball, but I think the Seahawks will be able to schematically take advantage of the lack of deep threats the 49ers possess until Aiyuk can come back. Ultimately, I like Seattle a lot this year and was surprised to see them getting 2.5 at home to start the season.
Tennessee at Denver (-7.5)
Denver -7.5
Going to ride the momentum of last season and believe in Bo Nix, year two with Sean Payton. I think Tennessee will be an improved team. It’s hard to have worse turnover luck and special teams play than they had last year, but I think an elite Denver defense overwhelms Cam Ward in his first start with Tennessee and Denver wins this one pretty easily.
Houston at Los Angeles (R) (-2.5)
Los Angeles (R) -2.5
This line could change on a dime if Matthew Stafford is out for Week 1. At the moment, we’re going off Stafford playing. For future reference, if lines change significantly due to injury news, we will post on our Twitter/X account an update on the line and pick: @ThePSSports. I just like Sean McVay and his ability to scheme. He’s had all offseason to plan his offensive scheme against a very good Houston defense. Ultimately, this is one of the better and evenly matched games going into Week 1. I’ll take the home team as long as Stafford is the one under center.
Detroit at Green Bay (-2.5)
Green Bay -2.5
A classic, seemingly competitive divisional game, and the line shows. I like Green Bay in this one. I think the loss of your Pro Bowl center and losing one of the best offensive coordinators in the game hurts an offense a lot. I still think Detroit is too talented to miss the playoffs this year, but I think this Green Bay team is really good and I think they kick off the season with a win in one of the best games of Week 1.
Baltimore at Buffalo (-1.5)
Buffalo -1.5
I really think we are getting an AFC Championship Game preview for our first Sunday Night Football game of the season. These two teams feel so even and as much of a coin-flip matchup (sorry, Josh Allen) as we will get this year. I like that I’m only having to give up 1.5 with the home team in Buffalo. The winner of this game probably comes down to which group performs better: Buffalo stopping the run or Baltimore getting pressure on Josh Allen.
Minnesota at Chicago (+1.5)
Chicago +1.5
If you read our NFC Over/Unders Preview, you would know exactly my thoughts on Minnesota. That being, I have no idea what to expect, and I think their offense is the biggest question mark of any team in the NFL. McCarthy was someone I was not high on out of Michigan, and sustaining a significant leg injury doesn’t make me more confident in him. With the absence of Jordan Addison and with aging Aaron Jones and TJ Hockenson, I think the Bears and star cornerback Jaylon Johnson can key in on Justin Jefferson and slow down the Minnesota offense enough to come up with a victory.
Super 5 Picks:
- Seattle +2.5
- Philadelphia -7.5
- Cincinnati -5.5
- Denver -7.5
- Kansas City -3
PostScript Sports 
Leave a comment