An even week in our picks last week, landing us at 8-8. Here are a few things that stuck out to me after Week 1!
Green Bay looks like the team to beat in the NFC. A strong performance over the Lions from start to finish and on both sides of the ball leads me to believe, at least for now, that Green Bay is the class of the NFC. We’ll see this Thursday night against a strong Washington team.
The Chargers didn’t seem to skip a beat without Rashawn Slater. They are in a fortunate position to still have an elite tackle in Joe Alt, but the Chargers seemed unfazed by the Chiefs without their star tackle. I will caveat this by saying this was a game in Brazil and to start a season. But the Chiefs defense is really what Kansas City rode to get to the Super Bowl last year, and the Chargers and Herbert sliced right through it.
Is Caleb Williams going to be the worst quarterback of that draft class? The jury is still out, and it’s still very early on all of these guys, but a late-game comeback led by JJ McCarthy in his first start has you wondering if the once super highly touted QB is going to fall behind the rest of his class.
Washington at Green Bay -3.5
Green Bay -3.5
Like I mentioned, I think Green Bay is the class of the NFC. You’ll find me saying this about every Thursday night game: I look at three things—QB, Head Coach, and home field, in that order. QB does go to the Commanders, but Jordan Love is still a fringe top-10 QB, so the gap there is smaller. Head Coach, I give the nod to LaFleur, and the Packers are home (back-to-back home games as well). I’ll take the Packers and eat the points in this matchup.
Cleveland at Baltimore -11.5
Baltimore -11.5
Baltimore looked like they were in a class of their own for 57 minutes last Sunday night. A debacle of a collapse against Josh Allen and the Bills shouldn’t take away that this offense is going to be a problem this year. Cleveland hung around with Cincinnati, but I don’t think they can hang points with the Ravens. I think the Ravens go home with a bitter taste in their mouth and put a beatdown on their divisional foe.
Los Angeles (R) at Tennessee +5.5
Tennessee +5.5
This is one of those picks that really makes you worry because the Titans’ offense did not look great last week. But let’s put things into perspective: it was on the road in Denver, Denver is a top-5, if not the best, defense in the league, and it was Cam Ward’s first start. This Rams team looked decent against the Texans but only managed to score 14 points at home. This Titans defense is good. I don’t know if they will win the game, but I think they have a chance and will at least keep it close at home.
Chicago at Detroit -6.5
Chicago +6.5
I know, I even wrote earlier about Caleb Williams and there being question marks there. But what did Detroit show last week that they should be almost a full touchdown favorite in a divisional game? The Bears faltered at the end against Minnesota, but this is a divisional game, and most importantly, the coaching matchup I think plays a part. Ben Johnson knows all things Detroit and Jared Goff. I think the Bears will have a game plan ready to slow down the Lions’ offense and make this a competitive game. Give me the points and Ben Johnson.
Buffalo at New York (J) +6.5
Buffalo -6.5
The Jets-Steelers game last week had to be one of the biggest head-scratchers of the week. The Jets ultimately lose a close, high-scoring game? I liked what I saw from Fields, but the Jets defense, which I thought was a strong point, gave up a lot to a 42-year-old quarterback last week. I think Buffalo shreds these guys early and makes the Jets have to play from behind, which has always been a weak point for Justin Fields–led offenses. I’m riding the better team and eating the -6.5.
New York (G) at Dallas -5.5
Dallas -5.5
I will say this: I don’t think Dallas is that good. But with Wilson at the helm at QB for the Giants, I just can’t take them if I’m not getting more than a touchdown. I think Dak showed he can move the ball against a good defense, and Wilson showed me that he can’t move the ball much at all right now. I think Dallas wins this one and is able to cover the 5.5.
San Francisco at New Orleans +4.5
New Orleans +4.5
I really don’t want to be on the New Orleans side of any bet this year. I said it Week 1: I’m not betting on your team unless you prove to me otherwise, Saints. The Saints did not show me that they should be the team to take. The reason I’m flipping is obvious: the 49ers already caught the injury bug. No Purdy and no Kittle for this one. New Orleans hung around enough that I don’t think they should be 4.5-point dogs at home to Mac Jones. I begrudgingly am picking New Orleans. Prove me right, Spencer!
New England at Miami -1.5
New England +1.5
Miami stinks. The Patriots have historically not played well in these early-season road games against Miami. But the weather might actually play in their favor this week. With a cloudy 84-degree forecast, the heat won’t be playing a factor. I think this is just a lost year in Miami, and I don’t think the lines have adjusted enough. I’ll take the extra 1.5 and take New England this week.
Jacksonville at Cincinnati -3.5
Cincinnati -3.5
The Bengals looked awful in Week 1 against the Browns, essentially not even moving the ball the entire second half against Cleveland. I think they’re just thankful to finally get a Week 1 win after losing their last three season openers. I think they get back on track here against a Jacksonville team that played well against a bad Panthers defense.
Seattle at Pittsburgh -2.5
Seattle +2.5
Pittsburgh gave up points in droves last week against New York. Seattle couldn’t find a rhythm offensively against San Francisco. The question in this game is, what stays the same? Does Seattle’s defense look good again, or does the Pittsburgh offense put up points again? I think this Seattle defense gets after Rodgers and sneaks one out on the road.
Denver at Indianapolis +2.5
Denver -2.5
This is one I’ve flipped back and forth on. I landed on Denver -2.5 for a few reasons: Denver is good defensively, and I think that shows up again against the Colts. Daniel Jones is still the quarterback for the Colts. I know their offense looked great against the Dolphins, but I think a lot of quarterbacks are going to look good against Miami. We saw last year in New Orleans that an offense can look great early against bad defenses; Denver is a great defense. I just think that wins out and Denver wins this one on the road.
Carolina at Arizona -6.5
Arizona -6.5
Just like I said last week picking Arizona with a bigger line, it’s more a pick against the team they’re playing than admiration for the Cardinals. Carolina really looks like they’re going to struggle to stop teams running the ball. I expect the Cardinals to run the ball and take advantage against a bad Panthers defense and make Bryce Young have to win the game through the air. Cardinals start the season 2-0.
Philadelphia at Kansas City +1.5
Philadelphia -1.5
The Chiefs just don’t scare anyone—and clearly not Vegas. Home dogs? Maybe this is the wake-up call and motivation they need, but we saw just last February how far apart these teams are. But no Rashee Rice and no Xavier Worthy limits the Chiefs moving down the field. I think the Chiefs struggle in this one and start the season 0-2.
Atlanta at Minnesota -3.5
Atlanta +3.5
I’m pretty excited for this one. Atlanta lost a game they should’ve won by way of the kicker. The Vikings looked bad for three quarters and came back to beat the Bears. Really, I just like Penix more than McCarthy. These are both flawed teams that can look good in stretches, but we’re still indoors, and I think the Falcons’ offense is just better than Minnesota’s, and I’m getting 3.5 points.
Tampa Bay at Houston -2.5
Tampa Bay +2.5
I think I’m just getting the better team and points. I’m starting to worry about CJ Stroud and the Texans’ offense. A poor performance to start the year in LA, and now going up against just a real professional football team in Tampa. I think Tampa just wins this game, and questions start swirling in Houston.
Los Angeles (C) at Las Vegas +3
Los Angeles (C) -3
Extra time to prepare and short travel make this road game feel a little less daunting for the Chargers. I really like what I saw from Herbert, and I think this Raiders defense isn’t that good. I think the Chargers might be on to something this season and take one on the road from their divisional rival. Also, Raiders-Chargers on Monday night just feels so right.
Super 5
BAL
DEN
LAC
AZ
BUF
Season Record:
1-4
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