A 7-8-1 week brings us to 25-22-1 on the season. What did we learn from Week 3?
What happened to Green Bay looking like world beaters? After a slow offensive start, the Packers looked like they would come away with a win with a 10-0 lead late. I said last week the only way I thought the Browns could stay in the game is by way of turnovers and/or special teams plays, and they were able to get both by way of a terrible Jordan Love interception on their own side of the field and a blocked field goal. I think the Packers defense is still really strong and they right the ship, but what a shock.
Seattle might be for real. After a close loss at home in Week 1 to the 49ers, the Seahawks had a strong win followed by a beat down of the lowly Saints at home. Many wrote the Seahawks off after the QB swap of Geno Smith for Sam Darnold and the loss of DK Metcalf. But Mike MacDonald has this defense looking like one of the league’s best, and Darnold is showing that maybe last year wasn’t an anomaly.
Should we be concerned about the Ravens and Chiefs? Oddly enough, they match up in Week 4 after both sit at 1-2 and have shown serious weakness. Lamar has looked as good as ever, but between odd Derrick Henry fumbles and a defense that is bending and breaking, the Ravens sit 1-2. Luckily for them, the AFC North looks weak, and 10 or 11 wins might be able to take home the division crown. The Chiefs, on the other hand, just feel like they’re missing explosiveness on offense and that their defense has taken a step back, especially their pass rush. They do not have the same luxury of a weak division as the Ravens do, and the Chargers, who have already beat the Chiefs, look like they’ve made a jump.
Seattle at Arizona +1.5
Seattle -1.5
I am really liking the way Seattle’s defense is taking place. The Cardinals have shown a deficiency in moving the ball consistently, and with the loss of James Conner for the season, I think that grows against a good Seahawk defensive line. My Thursday night theory is to compare three things: QB, Coach, and home field advantage in that order. I give the nod to Darnold and MacDonald, and I’m taking Seattle to win on the road.
Minnesota vs. Pittsburgh +2.5
Pittsburgh +2.5
Dublin Game! With a neutral field and odd travel, what should we look for? Coaching? Both coaches are strong. Quarterback play? I would prefer to have 42-year-old Rodgers over Wentz, but I’m not jumping for joy with that. Defense? Minnesota, I feel, has the edge. I don’t have a strong feel for this one, and anytime you get these Europe games I would never bet real money, but I’m going to take the team not playing with a backup quarterback.
Philadelphia at Tampa Bay +3.5
Tampa Bay +3.5
One of my favorite games of the week. Two undefeated teams likely to win their divisions clashing early. Tampa has been in some close battles and is missing Mike Evans, but getting 3.5 points at home against a Philly team that looked lost last week feels like too many points. I liked Tampa in a two-team teaser last week (with Seattle against New Orleans), and it hit. I think Tampa, in part of a two-team teaser (Tampa Bay +9.5), is standing out to me again. I’ll give you another chance to guess the other leg.
New Orleans at Buffalo -15.5
Buffalo -15.5
I will keep saying it until it becomes proven wrong: I’m not betting New Orleans no matter what unless proven otherwise. New Orleans not only suffered from limited quarterback play last week but also committed a litany of dumb penalties and were awful on special teams, leading to a 44-13 loss to Seattle in a game that was done by the middle of the second quarter. Give Josh Allen and company a long week and another road game and cross-country travel to New Orleans, and I see this one getting ugly as well.
Cleveland at Detroit -9.5
Detroit -9.5
Cleveland was another team I was not willing to pick unless otherwise shown. After a shocking victory against the Packers, the Browns are up against another strong NFC North team. Though I think Cleveland’s defense is for real, their offense is sputtering at best. The Lions offense has looked strong the last two weeks after a bad start in Week 1. I think the Lions continue to put points on the board and eventually break this one open.
Tennessee at Houston -7.5
Tennessee +7.5
I have been wrong on Tennessee the last few weeks. But again, this number feels too big for me. Houston has had huge offensive line issues, and I think this is one area Tennessee can hurt a team. Houston has just not shown me anything to be impressed by this year. I think this game looks similar to the Houston and Jacksonville game last week and is a low-scoring affair. I’ll take the 7.5 and the Titans.
Los Angeles (C) at New York (G) +6.5
Los Angeles (C) +6.5
Did you pick the Chargers as leg two of the teaser with Tampa? I just don’t see how the Chargers lose this game. The Chargers defense has looked strong these first three weeks, and they are going to get Jackson Dart in his first career start. I think the Chargers defense and Herbert are just too much for a bad Giants team.
Washington at Atlanta -2.5
Washington +2.5
Washington is without Jayden Daniels for a second week, and I just don’t see it being an issue here. Mariota was able to help the Commanders to an easy victory against the Raiders last week, and I see this week playing out similarly. Atlanta just seems like such a wild card of what you’re going to get, but after an embarrassing 30-0 loss against the Panthers and their lone victory against a JJ McCarthy-led Vikings team, I just need to see a little more from the Falcons before I’m picking them against a good team.
Carolina at New England -5.5
New England -5.5
Carolina got their first win of the year and shut out a Falcons team after looking lost on defense the first two weeks. New England is coming off a loss that was, in large part, due to more fumbling problems from Rhamondre Stevenson. I think both of those things return to the mean, and the Panthers defense goes back to its struggles, and New England cleans things up. I like New England at home here, despite the line being a little higher than I’d like.
Indianapolis at Los Angeles (R) -3.5
Los Angeles -3.5
First real road test for this Colts team that has looked very impressive on the offensive side of the ball so far. Los Angeles blew a large lead in Philadelphia last week, but they showed me enough to know that Stafford still has it, this defense is frisky, and Sean McVay may be the best coach in the NFL. I think the Rams give the Colts their first loss of the season in one of the best matchups of the season.
Jacksonville at San Francisco -3.5
San Francisco -3.5
Sitting at 3-0, the 49ers get Brock Purdy back against a Jacksonville team that is one of the hardest to figure out. San Francisco has done just enough to win with his absence. Can they avoid the injury bug for the rest of this season in what’s shaping up to be a competitive NFC West? I like the return of Purdy and the 49ers at home against a Jacksonville offense that I still just don’t trust.
Baltimore at Kansas City +2.5
Baltimore -2.5
Baltimore and Kansas City are both 1-2? I still think both of these teams find a way to make it to postseason play, but both clearly have deficiencies. I do worry about the Ravens defense, but I think this Chiefs team, until Rashee Rice returns, lacks the explosive plays to expose what Detroit and Buffalo were able to do in the first few games of the season. Feels like a toss-up to me, but one of these teams coming out of this week 1-3 is going to look very weird in the standings after Sunday.
Chicago at Las Vegas -1.5
Las Vegas -1.5
I think Pete and Geno get their first win of the season. The Bears looked good last week against the Cowboys, and there is definitely a little bit of life from that offense. I just think this is the game the Raiders are able to get Jeanty going and get their first win of the season. I like that I’m only laying 1.5 at home for a game that feels like very comparable teams.
Green Bay at Dallas +6.5
Green Bay -6.5
I don’t know what happened to the Packers offense last week, but I’m going to chalk it up to the Browns defense actually being strong. I think this Packers defense is really good, and maybe that embarrassing loss last week motivates the rest of the squad for Micah’s return to Dallas. I think the Packers bounce back on offense against a bad Cowboys defense, and Micah gets his revenge in a blowout against the Cowboys.
New York (J) at Miami -2.5
New York (J) +2.5
Miami was able to keep it competitive against the Bills last Thursday, but that close game isn’t going to sway me away from the fact this team just feels like a ticking time bomb waiting to explode and be in the running for the first pick in the draft. The Jets will get back Justin Fields this week, and I think they are able to keep the offense continuing to go and get the win on the road in South Beach.
Cincinnati at Denver -7.5
Denver -7.5
I’m going to keep it simple here: I’m not betting Cincinnati unless they show me they can do anything without Joe Burrow. You add on back-to-back road games and going against a well-coached Broncos team sitting at 1-2, I think this could be another long week for the Bengals.
Super 5
SEA
GB
LAC
SF
DEN
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