Week 7 was another week of still trying to figure out who is actually good in the league. If you follow us on X at https://x.com/ThePSSports, you would have also seen we swapped our pick in the Cleveland–Miami game to the Browns at -2.5, and glad we did. We find ourselves heading into Week 8 sitting at 53-54-1 for our season total and 18-17 in the Super 5 (10-5 in Super 5 the last three weeks!).
So, what were the key takeaways from Week 7?
Kansas City is looking back on track. From the season preview on, I was adamant this team would look different when they got Rashee Rice back from injury and suspension, and they sure looked like the explosive offense they’ve missed since Rice went down with a knee injury early last season. Sitting at 4-3, they currently sit on the outside looking in, as they currently don’t have the tiebreakers against Jacksonville and Los Angeles. But in a weaker AFC and the way things are trending, the Chiefs look poised to make another run at the AFC West title, and after being home dogs this season, are back to huge lines in back-to-back weeks.
The NFC West is loaded right now. With the Rams, Seahawks, and 49ers all sitting at 5-2, it feels like a slugfest is in store to grab the NFC West crown this year. The 49ers sit with a 3-0 record against the division, but with a plethora of injuries, you still have to pause when taking them seriously as contenders. But the team has looked strong with Mac Jones under center. The Rams put the beatdown on a Jaguars team that feels like their turnover luck has struck midnight after dropping two games without much fight. Stafford currently leads the league in passing touchdowns (17) and is looking as strong as ever. Seattle just played a sloppy game at home against the Texans, and still, there wasn’t really a moment the game ever felt in jeopardy. The Seattle defense looks like one of the best in football, all while missing two Pro Bowl defensive backs in Witherspoon and Love, but looking primed to come back after this week’s bye. Are all three going to make the playoffs?
Minnesota at Los Angeles (C) -3
Los Angeles (C) -3
I’m rolling with the Chargers here. You know the Thursday night theory by now. QB and home field go the way of the Chargers, and coaching is a wash. Like the Chargers here with back-to-back home games, while Minnesota has to travel after a close loss to Philadelphia. I’m not going to sit there and pick Wentz on the road against Herbert when I’m only eating 3 points.
Miami at Atlanta -7
Atlanta -7
Miami and Tua looked like a complete disaster on Sunday in Cleveland. We swapped our pick prior to kickoff due to what was forecasted as nasty weather for their game on Sunday. The bad weather never really showed up, and the Dolphins sure didn’t either. This Atlanta team is so inconsistent; I like betting them at home a LOT more than I do on the road moving forward. This feels like a week we get a coach firing in Miami, and I’m going to ride with the Falcons at home, even though 7 seems like a lot for a team as inconsistent as the Falcons.
Chicago at Baltimore -6.5
Baltimore -6.5
Lamar is back! This is just a total bet on the Ravens being desperate and needing a win, and bringing in a Bears team that, even with a four-game winning streak, is not impressing me. This Ravens team is definitely not as good as we’ve been accustomed to the last few years, even with Lamar under center. I just don’t trust Caleb Williams on the road still, and I think the Ravens, off a bye and with Lamar back, take control of this one.
New York (J) at Cincinnati (-6.5)
Cincinnati -6.5
The Jets may be the worst team in football. I think the Titans can give them a real run for their money, but they looked awful again at home against Carolina. The defense was able to hold Bryce Young and Andy Dalton to 13 points, but the offense couldn’t sniff the end zone with Justin Fields and Tyrod Taylor. It’s looking like Tyrod will get the start in Cincinnati this week. I don’t know how the Bengals are sitting here 3-4 and 6.5-point favorites, but I trust Flacco airing it out to Chase and Higgins more than I trust Tyrod to cover this spread.
Buffalo at Carolina +7.5
Buffalo -7.5
The Red Rifle is back under center, as Bryce Young looks like he will be sidelined with an ankle injury. The Bills have looked shaky this year, but I think they got a bye week at the perfect time. The defense is healthier, and they get a restart button and face off against a backup quarterback. I don’t see the Bills not putting up points on this Panthers defense, and I’m sure as hell not going to bet Dalton over Allen.
San Francisco at Houston +1.5
Houston +1.5
This was the hardest game of the week for me to pick. I am going with Houston for a few reasons: I think their defense is actually pretty good and can force turnovers. Mac Jones has looked pretty good filling in for Brock Purdy, and it appears he will start again this week. But I think this defense can take advantage of a poor receiving corps and make it hard for the 49ers to move the ball. I still sit here and wonder what happened to rookie C.J. Stroud, but I’m going to ride with the home team getting 1.5.
Cleveland at New England -7
New England -7
I think this is my favorite bet of the week. I like what I’m seeing from the Patriots right now. Drake Maye is looking like the best deep-ball thrower in the league right now. Myles Garrett said it himself — the Browns’ games feel the same basically every game: the defense shows up, and the offense struggles to move the ball. The Browns were able to take care of the Dolphins at home, but I think this Patriots team shuts down this Browns offense and is able to move the ball down the field enough to cover this 7 points.
New York (G) at Philadelphia -7
Philadelphia -7
Blowing a game in the fashion the Giants did against Denver, I think, can cause a hangover effect into the next week. Philadelphia will be hungry for revenge and is bringing back Brandon Graham. I think momentum plays a huge factor in this one, but I like that the Eagles were able to move the ball through the air last week against Minnesota. I’m rolling with the Eagles this week.
Tampa Bay at New Orleans +5.5
Tampa Bay -5.5
I’ve said it all year — I’m just not going to take the Saints unless something changes with them. Nothing has changed for seven weeks. These NFC South games, especially between Tampa and New Orleans, always seem weird, but I just think Tampa is just a much better football team than the Saints. I’ll eat the points this week and take the Bucs.
Tennessee at Indianapolis -14.5
Indianapolis -14.5
If you would have told me before the season the Colts would be 14.5 favorites in a regular-season game, I would have guessed the other team all came down with scurvy. The Colts have genuinely looked like the best team in football all season. They really are reminding me of last year’s Vikings team, and I’m going to ride with them. Cam Ward looks lost and seems primed to have an awful turnover every game. I think the Colts thump a Titans team who may be looking at having the #1 pick in back-to-back seasons.
Dallas at Denver -3
Dallas +3
I don’t love either of these teams. From an entertainment aspect, I can’t wait to watch this one. Dak and the Cowboys’ offense is genuinely really good; their defense is still such a weak spot right now. Denver can’t seem to put a full good game together. A miraculous comeback against a young Giants team doesn’t inspire much confidence. I had a hard time picking this one, but I think the Cowboys’ offense gets out to an early lead and can hold off this struggling Broncos offense. Side note: I am more on Brandon Aubrey watch — would they trot him out for a 75-yarder in Mile High?
Green Bay at Pittsburgh +3.5
Pittsburgh +3.5
One exercise I do before looking at the lines for the week is guessing my own lines, and this line was one that I felt so off on. I figured Pittsburgh -1.5. I just don’t understand the Packers being that big of favorites on the road. Have you watched them play this year? Scored 6 points at the half against Arizona, almost let the Bengals back into a game, and blew a game to Cleveland. This offense is super inconsistent. The Steelers lost last week, but I really like what I’m seeing from Rodgers. I just think 3.5 is too much for Green Bay to get as a road favorite.
Washington at Kansas City -10.5
Kansas City -10.5
Jayden Daniels looks questionable for this week’s matchup. I’m just going to ride the hot hand in Kansas City and like that I’m getting back-to-back home games for KC and back-to-back road games for Washington. I think Kansas City makes a statement to the rest of the AFC that they are back in full swing.
Super 5
NE
PIT
KC
IND
CIN
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