Against the Spread: NFL Week 10 Predictions and Analysis

We head into Week 10 after a chaotic trade deadline and a whacky Week 9. Season total for the year is 68-67-1 and we look to get back on track after a 6-8 week last week.

What we learned from Week 9:

The Bengals defense is arguably one of the worst we’ve ever seen. Back-to-back weeks we’ve seen this team just absolutely throw away leads and flat out lose these games for Cincinnati while Joe Flacco and the offense have been putting up numbers in droves. They sit at 3-6 and basically wrote themselves out of any playoff hopes. 

The Jets throw in the towel. I can’t remember an NFL team being this big of sellers at the trade deadline ever. The Jets move off of Quinnen Williams and Sauce Gardner a few hours before the deadline and get back 3 first round picks and a second round pick in doing so. For a team that is going nowhere this year and next year I honestly like the moves. You get two second rounders for a corner that is good but not a complete game changer like a Pat Surtain, Champ Bailey or Darrelle Revis. The Quinnen Williams package also feels strong as you basically got 90% of the return the Cowboys got for Micah Parsons that you get for Williams. 

Buffalo held Mahomes in check. The Chiefs were redhot going into Buffalo this last week and the Bills and their defense shut the Kansas City offense down, keeping Mahomes under 50% completion percentage for the first time in his career. It’s going to be a slug fest between a New England team, who have a cupcake schedule, for the AFC East crown.

Las Vegas at Denver -9.5

Denver -9.5

QB: Advantage Broncos, Head Coach: Advantage Broncos, Home Field: Broncos. A three-for-three trifecta for the Thursday Night theory. The line is high but this Raiders team was closer to trading Maxx Crosby at the deadline than they are to beating a good defense. I think the Broncos turnover the Raiders a few times and are able to cover a high spread.

Atlanta vs Indianapolis -5.5

Indianapolis -5.5

Indianapolis crapped the bed a little last week in Pittsburgh and now find themselves across the Atlantic Ocean facing off against a Falcons team that has looked pretty bad outside of one week against the Bills this year. I think Indy gets back on track with their new addition of Sauce Gardner and holds the inconsistent Atlanta offense in check.

Cleveland at New York (J) +2.5

Cleveland -2.5

I’m taking Cleveland as a 2.5 road favorite? Yikes. Line moved from Jets -1.5 to Jets +2.5 after the trades on Tuesday. Don’t love the new line but I think this Browns defense after a bye week just holds this Jets team to under 13 points. Does a pissed off Jets team prove me wrong?

New Orleans at Carolina -5.5

Carolina -5.5

New Orleans found themselves selling some at the deadline as they traded Rashid Shaheed for a fourth and fifth rounder to Seattle. This Panthers team has strung together some wins and I like them a lot more at home. Tyler Shough showed to be possibly even worse of an option than Spencer Rattler at quarterback after the Saints were only able to scrounge up 10 points last week against the Rams. There is a race to the bottom and the Saints look to be a front runner while the Panthers are fighting for a playoff spot.

New England at Tampa Bay -2.5

Tampa Bay -2.5

Tampa off a bye and looking to get Bucky Irving back makes me like the Buccaneers at home this week. New England could potentially take the top off of this Tampa defense but I think the Buccaneers find a way to win this one and with the extra rest at a time they really needed it cover the spread against a good New England team playing a game against a team with a winning record for the first time in over a month.

Baltimore at Minnesota +4.5

Minnesota +4.5

Baltimore thrashed Miami last Thursday Night in Lamar’s return and the Vikings took control against a Detroit team on the road on Sunday. I’m still a little weary of JJ McCarthy but I think people are forgetting just how bad this Ravens defense has been all season. With the weapons of Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison and TJ Hockenson running patterns in an indoor setting I think Minnesota probably wins this game and I’m getting 4.5 points with them in Minnesota. SKOL!

Buffalo at Miami +9.5

Buffalo -9.5

Buffalo failed to cover a large Thursday Night spread at home against the Dolphins but I think they get it done here. A full week of prep for the Bills and a Dolphins team that we know is going to have a new head coach next year just makes me believe the Bills put it on the Dolphins. I think we hear some hometown boos in a divisional blowout down in South Beach this week.

New York (G) at Chicago -3.5

Chicago -3.5

Chicago squeezed out a win in Cincinnati after their defense allowed over 40 points to Joe Flacco. The Bears looked shaky in their last two games on the road but I think right the ship at home against a Giants team that lets face it is just not good on offense and missing their best two play makers in Nabers and Skattebo. I think Chicago can hang some points against the Giants and keep Dart under wraps on the other side.

Jacksonville at Houston -1.5

Houston -1.5

It looks like Davis Mills will get the start in Houston this week but a return of CJ Stroud may change this line so be sure to follow us on X here at https://x.com/ThePSSports for any changes to this game. I just like the Texans at home here. Their defense is still really good and I think this Jaguars team is too reliant on turnovers. 

Arizona at Seattle -6.5

Seattle -6.5

Jacoby Brissett was named the starter for a Cardinals team that has looked better the last few weeks. A strong showing against Dallas leads this team back up to Seattle to face off for the second time this season. I think Seattle is just rolling right now and with the addition of Shaheed I think this offense could explode against a Cardinals defense. It is worth noting Seattle may be without starting middle linebacker Ernest Jones in this one but even if he is out I don’t think this Cardinals running game can take advantage.

Detroit at Washington +8.5

Detroit -8.5

Washington will be back with Mariota as the starter after Jayden Daniels suffered a bad elbow injury, luckily to his non throwing arm, on Sunday Night. I think this again is a recipe for disaster for Washington. You’ve all but eliminated yourselves from the playoffs, you are riddled with injuries and the Lions just came off a loss and need to keep pace in the NFC North. I think the Lions run all over the Commanders and cover this one.

Los Angeles (R) at San Francisco +3.5

Los Angeles (R) -3.5

I know San Francisco got the better of Los Angeles earlier this season. I know I keep going against the 49ers and they have covered in most of their games. But I think McVay gets back on track against Shanahan here, as he has dominated the head-to-head match up. I really like this Rams team and I think they are one of the best in the league, I think the 49ers defense gets schemed up in this one and LA even the season series.

Pittsburgh at Los Angeles (C) -3

Los Angeles (C) -3

I don’t like Pittsburgh on the road here. Los Angeles slept through a win in Tennessee and now has a Steelers team that was able to turn Indianapolis over 6 times last Sunday in a much needed win. I don’t like this Chargers team without Joe Alt but I think they get a little bit of help with the trade for Trevor Penning to fill in at tackle. Don’t forget this Steelers defense has given up a lot of points and if they aren’t able to get the turnovers, which they haven’t done on the road, I don’t think they can win this one.

Philadelphia at Green Bay -2.5

Philadelphia +2.5

Talk about a team you never know what you’re getting from in Green Bay. I’m going to keep this one simple. I’m getting Philly, who I think is the better team, off a bye week and I’m getting 2.5 points with them. Green Bay could go out there and look like the best team in the league or they could go out and get beat 24-10. I’m just going to trust the Eagles here a little more.


Super 5
SEA
LAC
CAR
BUF
CHI

Posted in

Leave a comment